Earnings ought to enhance scorching financial institution trades: RBC’s Gerard Cassidy


One of many 12 months’s hottest trades might get a lift from earnings season.

RBC Capital Markets’ Gerard Cassidy expects financials to exceed Wall Avenue expectations after they begin reporting this week.

“The massive beats are more likely to come from the mortgage loss reserve releasing numbers,” the agency’s head of U.S. financial institution fairness technique advised CNBC’s “Buying and selling Nation” on Friday. “Final 12 months due to the pandemic, the banking trade put aside billions of {dollars} in anticipated credit score losses, and the reserves for these losses weren’t used.”

Financials had been the third worst performing S&P 500 group in 2020, behind vitality and actual property. To this point this 12 months, Monetary Choose Sector SPDR Fund, which tracks the group, is up greater than 19%.

In accordance with Cassidy, that is about to vary. He believes the banking sector will likely be among the many finest performers this 12 months as a result of unprecedented financial restoration.

“That was not factored in final 12 months when the banks put aside this cash to cowl these losses,” he stated. “So, we anticipate within the first quarter that is going to be the massive driver of the earnings beat, partially offset although with slower development within the web curiosity revenue and possibly some web curiosity margin strain as effectively.”

JPMorgan Chase ushers in earnings season on Wednesday — together with Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo.

Cassidy anticipates Financial institution of America, which studies quarterly outcomes on Thursday, would be the largest winner. It is up 32% thus far this 12 months.

He lists sturdy administration, its vast publicity to the U.S. restoration and numerous income stream because the chief bullish elements.

“Ninety % of their enterprise, comes from the US,” stated Cassidy. “With the Federal Reserve forecasting the development of this nation’s financial system coming in at 6%, they are going to be one of many largest beneficiaries of that development.”

Cassidy names Credit score Suisse because the financial institution going through probably the most challenges proper now. He cites its large losses in reference to the Archegos Capital hedge fund implosion.

“There was various administration adjustments through the years in that group,” Cassidy stated. “Due to that presumably the controls and procedures weren’t as stable as they have been at a number of the home U.S. corporations.”

Shares of Credit score Suisse are off greater than 26% since March 1.

Disclosure: RBC Capital Markets has funding banking relationships and/or non-investment banking relationships with JPM, BAC MS, GS, and CS.

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